江时学：从历史的高度分析金融危机
自古以来，穷国和富国的经济发展都离不开债务。但是，许多国家因不加节制地举借债务而最终陷入债务危机。
每当世界上某一个国家爆发债务危机或金融危机后，一些经济学家总是说：“这一次危机不同于以往”。他们认为，这一次危机的爆发有一定的特殊性，与过去的危机不可同日而语。
Carmen M. Reinhart 和 Kenneth S. Rogoff 合著的《这一次是不同的：八百年以来的金融危机》（This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly）一书则认为，世界各地爆发的金融危机的根源和演化的进程在表面上看是各不相同的，但其本质基本上是相同的。
Carmen M. Reinhart 是美国马里兰大学的经济学教授， Kenneth S. Rogoff 是哈佛大学的经济学教授。最近几年，这两位学者著述甚丰，在国际上名声大增。
本书分析了世界五大洲66个国家遇到的各种金融危机的根源、危机的“传染效应”、通货膨胀与债务危机的关系、危机的预警、国际金融机构的作用、政府的对策、资本流动和金融自由化的影响、美元化和其他一些重要的问题。
本书出版后获得了国际学术界的好评。美国联邦储备委员会主席伯南克认为，“本书是一本论述债务危机和金融危机的非常出色的专著。”《纽约时报》发表的书评认为，“本书利用大量资料，使读者对金融危机获得了深刻的认识。本书的要旨是：虽然金融危机的形式有所不同，但这些危机不是来自人类无法控制的海底地震。如果政治家和金融管理者能知道危机是怎么回事，他们是可以预防和应对危机的。”
当前，国内外学术界正在讨论“欧洲债务危机”。且不论“欧洲债务危机”这一提法是否贴切（因为迄今为止只有希腊和爱尔兰陷入了危机），本书有利于我们从历史的高度认识各种债务危机和金融危机的来龙去脉。
本书目录
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
LIST OF TABLES xiii
LIST OF FIGURES xvii
LIST OF BOXES xxiii
PREFACE xxv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxxvii
PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE xxxix
PART I: Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1
Chapter 1: Varieties of Crises and Their Dates 3
Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement 4
Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default 8
Other Key Concepts 14
Chapter 2: Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default 21
Debt Thresholds 21
Measuring Vulnerability 25
Clubs and Regions 27
Reflections on Debt Intolerance 29
Chapter 3: A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View 34
Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP 35
Government Finances and National Accounts 39
Public Debt and Its Composition 40
Global Variables 43
Country Coverage 43
PART II: Sovereign External Debt Crises 49
Chapter 4: A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises 51
Sovereign Lending 54
Illiquidity versus Insolvency 59
Partial Default and Rescheduling 61
Odious Debt 63
Domestic Public Debt 64
Conclusions 67
Chapter 5: Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt 68
Recurring Patterns 68
Default and Banking Crises 73
Default and Inflation 75
Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default 77
The Duration of Default Episodes 81
Chapter 6: External Default through History 86
The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging
Capital Inflows and Default: An "
External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture 89
PART III: The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 101
Chapter 7: The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default 103
Domestic and External Debt 103
Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition 105
Episodes of Domestic Default 110
Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt 111
Chapter 8: Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation 119
Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle 119
Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default 123
The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" 124
Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? 125
The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited 127
Chapter 9: Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? 128
Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129
Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129
The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors 133
Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues 136
PART IV: Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 139
Chapter 10: Banking Crises 141
A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises 143
Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace 147
Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization 155
Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices 157
Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? 162
The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited 162
Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations 171
Chapter 11: Default through Debasement: An "
Chapter 12: Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes 180
An Early History of Inflation Crises 181
Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons 182
Currency Crashes 189
The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses 191
Undoing Domestic Dollarization 193
PART V: The
Chapter 13: The
A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath 204
The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis 208
Risks Posed by Sustained
The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis 215
A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies 216
Summary 221
Chapter 14: The Aftermath of Financial Crises 223
Historical Episodes Revisited 225
The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration 226
The Fiscal Legacy of Crises 231
Sovereign Risk 232
Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s 233
Concluding Remarks 238
Chapter 15: The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis:
The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? 240
Concepts of Contagion 241
Selected Earlier Episodes 241
Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction 242
Are More Spillovers Under Way? 246
Chapter 16: Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil 248
Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index 249
Defining a Global Financial Crisis 260
The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype 270
Summary 273
PART VI: What Have We Learned? 275
Chapter 17: Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature 277
On Early Warnings of Crises 278
The Role of International Institutions 281
Graduation 283
Some Observations on Policy Responses 287
The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome 290
DATA APPENDIXES 293
A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series 295
A.2. Public Debt 327
A.3. Dates of Banking Crises 344
A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises 348
NOTES 393
REFERENCES 409
NAME INDEX 435
SUBJECT INDEX 443