李罡接受芬兰Gbtimes采访 谈中英关系发展及其对中美关系的影响

  When Earl George Macartney led a delegation to China in 1793 to open trade between the British Empire and the Middle Kingdom, the outcome was disastrous. Amid scenes of cultural misunderstandings, Macartney failed to kowtow to the Qianlong emperor, who in turn was dismissive of his visitor and the crown he represented.

  Although the Qianlong Emperor could not see it, the world was changing. China was to begin a slow decline that would eventually see China on its knees and the UK as dominant the global power.

  After two centuries of animosity, colonialism, ideological divides, conflict, and the return of Hong Kong to China, President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping travels to the United Kingdom to herald a new high in relations. Similarly, if less dramatically, changes are ongoing within the international system.

  The visit is being hailed by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne as the start of a "golden era", following what Mr Xi describes as a “visionary and strategic” decision by the UK to become the Western country that is most open to China.

  Following a cold snap in relations after Prime Minister David Cameron met with the Dalai Lama, Mr Osborne has worked towards improving ties with Beijing, resulting in a boom in bilateral trade and investment.

  Osborne even embarked on a trip to Xinjiang in northwest China, a region affected by tension between the Uyghur and Han Chinese ethnic groups, with the view of securing construction contracts for British firms as China looks to link China, Central Asia and Europe through its ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative.

  “Let’s stick together to make Britain China’s best partner in the West,” Osborne said in the run-up to Xi’s arrival, echoing Chinese hyping of relations.

  Trade, investment boom

  As Xi noted in an apparent, rare interview with Reuters, China-UK trade volume exceeded 80 billion US dollars in 2014, and China's imports from the UK have doubled over five years, as the two have found areas of mutual interest.

  The UK became the first major Western country to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank earlier this year, and London has become an RMB clearing centre, and China is investing and involved in a number of infrastructure projects including nuclear power generation, high speed railway, airports and an innovative tidal energy lagoon.

  As well as these areas of investment, Dr Li Gang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says China hopes to “accelerate the process of RMB internationalisation by enhancing financial cooperation with Britain since London can play an important and key role in the process as the world's financial centre.”

  Dr Jian Junbo of the Centre for European Studies at Fudan University notes that China also hopes the UK could be a bridge for Chinese investment to Europe.

  “China hopes Britain can jointly build a new Silk Road and become the western end of [the] “One Belt One Road” initiative in the Eurasian continent,” Li told gbtimes, adding that thanks to a range of dialogues and mechanisms, “bilateral relations are undergoing unprecedented stability and maturity.”

  Issues to one side

  Ahead of the visit, Wang Chao, a vice foreign minister,  stated in a press briefing that “enormous” deals would be signed during the visit – the first by a Chinese president since Hu Jintao in 2005.

  While Chinese and British leaders are talking up a new high in Sino-British relations, there are a number of issues, domestic and international, that are being raised by those outside of government.

  China’s human rights record is an issue that will see protests in London arranged by Amnesty International.

  Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, is expected to discuss China’s rights situation. However, China’s ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming expects this will be done in the scheduled private discussion with Xi Jinping, rather than at a state banquet at Buckingham Palace.

  Concerns are also being voiced that the UK's relationship with China is becoming dominated by trade and invesstment, and meanwhile the Tory government is  jeopardising national security by involving Chinese state owned companies to invest in British nuclear plants and infrastructure.

  Seismic shift?

  Keen interest and scrutiny of the visit and what it signifies is also to be found in Europe and on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

  The Financial Times (paywall) writes that “Britain’s traditional allies regard this behaviour as bizarre at best and craven and dangerous at worst, while old China hands at the Foreign Office are in despair”.

  US media has reacted strongly to what it sees as Britain kowtowing to China and bending over backwards to prove its friendship. Global Times, an often nationalistic Beijing tabloid run by the Communist Party of China, described American opprobrium to the UK’s burgeoning ties with as China as ‘sour grapes’.

  Analysts have been considering the potential ramifications for UK-US relations. The US has a much more competitive and antagonistic, if interdependent, relationship with China, and a range of sore spots including cybersecurity, the South and East China Seas, currency valuation and trade imbalance.

  Washington had opposed British plans to join the AIIB, but despite the divergent views on China, David Cameron has insisted the new 'golden era' will not harm its special relationship with its traditional US ally.

  Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Sydney, told CNN that the US, “will be concerned about the freeloading off the hard work Washington has done in having 'hard talk' with China's leaders”.

  Li Gang believes Britain tends to take a more pragmatic approach in dealing with international relations, which is the root cause of the continuous escalation of Sino-British relations.

  He hopes that rather than damaging US-UK ties, the United Kingdom can “play a coordinating and lubricant role in the development of Sino-US relations.”

  “Sino-British relations become a cooperation model between countries which have different social systems and different stages of development,” Li says.

  Jian Junbo echoes the sentiment that the UK can be a “good broker between China and the US,” as well as a model relation of China-European countries and “stimulate some members like Germany and France to develop closer bilateral relations”.

  But the shifts reflected in the United Kingdom's turn towards China hints at bigger changes.

  Martin Jacques writing in the Guardian opines that China offers Britain "the prospect of modernising our infrastructure in a way that otherwise would be inconceivable," and shows "how Britain can prosper in the Asian-oriented and China-centric world rapidly unfolding before us".

  The US, struggling with the notion of China's rise, is suffering an identity crisis, writes CNBC.

  Set in the context of a debated relative decline of the US and the re-emergence of a China still not well understood by the West, deepening Sino-British ties are likely to be met with some scepticism abroad, and the UK will be hard pressed to play the role of catalyst. The deals signed this week may however turn heads elsewhere.

  http://gbtimes.com/china/xi-jinpings-uk-visit-highlights-changing-times-britain-us 

  (联系 李罡:l-gang@cass.org.cn